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Mean reversion · MU · 1D

Does RSI(2) dip buy actually work on MU? We tested it

We ran RSI(2) dip buy on MU through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 84 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +225.5%
Win rate 78.0%
Max drawdown −27.4%
Trades 59
Sharpe 0.92
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −4.3% −0.10 8
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +44.7% 1.67 12
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +30.9% 1.27 15
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +28.2% 0.76 11
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.90. Worst period −4.3%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 7 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.

MU SHIPPED
84/100 EDGE
NVDA
97/100 EDGE
AVGO
97/100 EDGE
MSFT
91/100 EDGE
AMD
86/100 EDGE
XOM
86/100 EDGE
QQQ
79/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
GLD
89/100 NONE
MSTR
83/100 NONE
MARA
72/100 NONE
SPY
71/100 NONE
GOOGL
64/100 NONE
META
60/100 NONE
SMCI
53/100 NONE
COIN
49/100 NONE
JPM
47/100 NONE
BA
46/100 NONE
NFLX
43/100 NONE
DIA
41/100 NONE
UBER
40/100 NONE
RIOT
36/100 NONE
TSLA
32/100 NONE
AAPL
27/100 NONE
IWM
19/100 NONE
SOFI
18/100 NONE
AMZN
13/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen RSI of close over 2 bars is below 10 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (RSI of close over 2 bars is above 70)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a solid profit of 225.5% over 59 trades, but the ride was far from smooth. The worst stretch was a painful 27.36% drawdown from early July to early August 2024, which would have tested your patience. With a win rate of nearly 78% and an average gain of 2.17% per trade, the strategy did not rely on just a few big winners to produce its result. The entry timing shows a real edge, beating 84% of random entry runs, meaning the specific moment you buy is a key driver of the profit. The consistency figure shows the edge held up in 3 out of 4 test periods, so the performance was not just a lucky one-time streak.

Run this on your own account.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.