Does Four-down-days bounce actually work on NVDA? We tested it

This strategy made money overall, turning a 111% total return on NVDA by buying after four consecutive down days while the stock was above its 200-day average. The ride was fairly steady, with a high 87.5% win rate and an average gain of 2.5% per trade, but it did have one painful stretch: a 14.43% drawdown that lasted from mid-2017 to late 2018, which is where the strategy hurt most. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the edge was consistent across 32 trades. The entry-timing edge figure shows that the real entries beat 100% of random entry runs, meaning the entry signal itself is carrying the result, not the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge showed up steadily across three of the four walk-forward test periods, so it was not just one lucky stretch.