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Mean reversion · NVDA · 1D

Does Three-down-days bounce actually work on NVDA? We tested it

We ran Three-down-days bounce on NVDA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 100 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +271.6%
Win rate 74.4%
Max drawdown −11.5%
Trades 90
Sharpe 1.18
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +10.2% 0.62 10
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +14.6% 0.72 23
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +86.6% 1.71 21
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +12.8% 0.76 22
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.95. Worst period +10.2%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 6 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 6. We ship it on those.

NVDA SHIPPED
100/100 EDGE
MSFT
99/100 EDGE
MSTR
93/100 EDGE
SMCI
89/100 EDGE
QQQ
86/100 EDGE
GOOGL
82/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
AAPL
87/100 NONE
TSLA
87/100 NONE
AMZN
75/100 NONE
NFLX
72/100 NONE
UBER
68/100 NONE
AVGO
67/100 NONE
MU
66/100 NONE
AMD
63/100 NONE
IWM
59/100 NONE
XOM
57/100 NONE
META
56/100 NONE
RIOT
50/100 NONE
SPY
36/100 NONE
COIN
31/100 NONE
DIA
27/100 NONE
GLD
20/100 NONE
JPM
16/100 NONE
MARA
7/100 NONE
BA
7/100 NONE
SOFI
2/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close is above SMA of close over 200 bars AND close is below close 1 bar ago AND close 1 bar ago is below close 2 bars ago AND close 2 bars ago is below close 3 bars ago
Exitwhen a signal fires (close is above close 1 bar ago), or 10 bars have passed since entry (time stop)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a strong profit of 271.58% over 90 trades, and the ride was fairly steady with a high win rate of 74.44% and a moderate Sharpe ratio of 1.18. The worst pain came in late 2018, when the account dropped 11.53% over about a month, which is the only period that really tested your patience. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, since the average gain per trade was a solid 1.54% and the win rate is high. The entry timing edge is exceptional, with real entries beating 100% of random entry runs, meaning the entry signal itself is the main driver of success rather than how you exit. The consistency figure shows the edge held up in all four walk-forward periods, so this is a reliable pattern that works across different market stretches, not a one-time fluke.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.