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Mean reversion · NVDA · 1D

Does RSI(2) dip, MA exit actually work on NVDA? We tested it

We ran RSI(2) dip, MA exit on NVDA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 100 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +281.4%
Win rate 76.2%
Max drawdown −24.8%
Trades 80
Sharpe 0.92
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −14.0% −0.21 10
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +11.6% 0.46 20
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +63.4% 1.60 16
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +47.3% 1.21 20
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.76. Worst period −14.0%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 9 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.

NVDA SHIPPED
100/100 EDGE
MU
100/100 EDGE
AMD
99/100 EDGE
MSFT
98/100 EDGE
MSTR
96/100 EDGE
AVGO
94/100 EDGE
QQQ
86/100 EDGE
META
81/100 EDGE
SPY
80/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
GLD
81/100 NONE
GOOGL
68/100 NONE
AAPL
66/100 NONE
DIA
60/100 NONE
BA
60/100 NONE
XOM
60/100 NONE
SMCI
50/100 NONE
TSLA
45/100 NONE
COIN
44/100 NONE
IWM
37/100 NONE
UBER
35/100 NONE
AMZN
34/100 NONE
NFLX
31/100 NONE
SOFI
30/100 NONE
MARA
30/100 NONE
RIOT
30/100 NONE
JPM
26/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen RSI of close over 2 bars is below 10 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close is above SMA of close over 5 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a strong profit of 281% over 80 trades, with a high win rate of 76%, meaning most trades were winners. However, the ride was very lumpy, as the worst drawdown was a steep 24.77% loss that happened during a single week in March 2020, which was the most painful period. The entry timing was excellent, beating 100% of random entry runs, so the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits doing the work. The edge was not consistent across all periods, as it was profitable in only 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, meaning the success came from one stretch of time rather than steady performance. Overall, the strategy made money but had a scary drop that could test your confidence.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.