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Mean reversion · AMD · 1D

Does RSI(2) dip buy actually work on AMD? We tested it

We ran RSI(2) dip buy on AMD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 86 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +348.8%
Win rate 70.6%
Max drawdown −32.8%
Trades 68
Sharpe 0.93
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +35.7% 0.75 18
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +31.4% 1.02 15
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +52.0% 1.42 18
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +42.4% 1.03 11
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 1.05. Worst period +31.4%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 7 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.

AMD SHIPPED
86/100 EDGE
NVDA
97/100 EDGE
AVGO
97/100 EDGE
MSFT
91/100 EDGE
XOM
86/100 EDGE
MU
84/100 EDGE
QQQ
79/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
GLD
89/100 NONE
MSTR
83/100 NONE
MARA
72/100 NONE
SPY
71/100 NONE
GOOGL
64/100 NONE
META
60/100 NONE
SMCI
53/100 NONE
COIN
49/100 NONE
JPM
47/100 NONE
BA
46/100 NONE
NFLX
43/100 NONE
DIA
41/100 NONE
UBER
40/100 NONE
RIOT
36/100 NONE
TSLA
32/100 NONE
AAPL
27/100 NONE
IWM
19/100 NONE
SOFI
18/100 NONE
AMZN
13/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen RSI of close over 2 bars is below 10 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (RSI of close over 2 bars is above 70)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a strong profit of 348.81% over 68 trades, but the ride was lumpy with a worst drawdown of -32.84% that hit hard in late October 2018. That drawdown is significant and shows where the strategy hurt most, likely catching a severe dip that didn't bounce quickly. The win rate is high at 70.59%, and the average trade gained 2.37%, which suggests the result is not driven by just a few huge winners but by many small, consistent wins. The entry-timing edge is strong, with real entries beating 86% of random entry runs, meaning the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits doing the heavy lifting. The consistency figure shows the edge held up across all four walk-forward periods, so the profit came steadily over time rather than from one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.