Does Williams %R bounce actually work on XOM? We tested it
We ran Williams %R bounce on XOM through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 96 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 12. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money, turning a 44.59% total return over 26 trades, and it did so with a high win rate of 69.23%, meaning most trades were winners. The ride was fairly steady, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.56, but it had one painful stretch where the account dropped 12.27% in early March 2023, which was the worst drawdown. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the entry timing edge is strong, with real entries beating 96% of random entry runs, so the entry signal itself is doing the heavy lifting. The edge also shows up consistently, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, meaning the performance came from steady execution rather than one hot streak. Overall, this is a reliable setup that works well when the Williams %R bounces off the oversold zone while the price is above the 200-day moving average.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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