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Mean reversion · MU · 1D

Does Williams %R bounce actually work on MU? We tested it

We ran Williams %R bounce on MU through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 79 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +221.4%
Win rate 77.1%
Max drawdown −37.7%
Trades 35
Sharpe 0.79
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +9.5% 0.37 6
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +30.1% 1.18 6
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +7.4% 0.38 9
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +63.5% 1.38 7
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.83. Worst period +7.4%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 12 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 12. We ship it on those.

MU SHIPPED
79/100 EDGE
META
100/100 EDGE
NFLX
98/100 EDGE
UBER
98/100 EDGE
XOM
96/100 EDGE
DIA
93/100 EDGE
JPM
93/100 EDGE
NVDA
92/100 EDGE
SPY
91/100 EDGE
GLD
82/100 EDGE
QQQ
81/100 EDGE
AVGO
80/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
RIOT
81/100 NONE
AMD
67/100 NONE
BA
65/100 NONE
IWM
62/100 NONE
GOOGL
58/100 NONE
MSTR
58/100 NONE
MSFT
56/100 NONE
COIN
55/100 NONE
AMZN
52/100 NONE
AAPL
47/100 NONE
SOFI
37/100 NONE
TSLA
12/100 NONE
MARA
10/100 NONE
SMCI
7/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen WILLR of close over 14 bars crosses above -90 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (WILLR of close over 14 bars is above -30)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a solid profit of 221%, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst moment came in March 2020, when the account dropped 37.66% in just a few days, which shows the strategy can get hit hard during sudden market crashes. With 35 trades and a high win rate of 77%, the result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, but rather by consistent small wins. The entry-timing edge is decent, beating 79% of random entries, meaning the entry signal itself is doing some of the work, but the exits are also important since random entries still came close. The consistency figure shows the edge held up across all four test periods, so the profit did not come from one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.