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Mean reversion · JPM · 1D

Does Williams %R bounce actually work on JPM? We tested it

We ran Williams %R bounce on JPM through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 93 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +86.5%
Win rate 79.4%
Max drawdown −11.5%
Trades 34
Sharpe 0.86
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +1.9% 0.17 7
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +17.3% 1.25 8
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +6.1% 0.46 6
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +24.3% 1.20 7
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.77. Worst period +1.9%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 12 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 12. We ship it on those.

JPM SHIPPED
93/100 EDGE
META
100/100 EDGE
NFLX
98/100 EDGE
UBER
98/100 EDGE
XOM
96/100 EDGE
DIA
93/100 EDGE
NVDA
92/100 EDGE
SPY
91/100 EDGE
GLD
82/100 EDGE
QQQ
81/100 EDGE
AVGO
80/100 EDGE
MU
79/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
RIOT
81/100 NONE
AMD
67/100 NONE
BA
65/100 NONE
IWM
62/100 NONE
GOOGL
58/100 NONE
MSTR
58/100 NONE
MSFT
56/100 NONE
COIN
55/100 NONE
AMZN
52/100 NONE
AAPL
47/100 NONE
SOFI
37/100 NONE
TSLA
12/100 NONE
MARA
10/100 NONE
SMCI
7/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen WILLR of close over 14 bars crosses above -90 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (WILLR of close over 14 bars is above -30)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money, turning an 86.53% total return over 34 trades, and the ride was relatively steady with a high 79.41% win rate and a modest average gain of 1.90% per trade. The worst stretch was a drawdown of -11.50% that lasted about ten months from late 2018 into mid-2019, which is where the strategy hurt most. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the edge was consistent across all four walk-forward test periods. The entry timing is doing the heavy lifting here, since the real entries beat 93% of random entry runs, meaning the specific signal of crossing above -90 on the Williams %R while above the 200-day moving average is what makes this work.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.