Does Williams %R bounce actually work on GLD? We tested it
We ran Williams %R bounce on GLD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 82 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 12. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 29% gain on GLD with a high win rate of 72%, meaning most trades were winners. However, the ride was lumpy, as shown by a low Sharpe ratio of 0.47 and a worst drawdown of -12.56% that lasted over two months from May to July 2026. That drawdown period was where the strategy hurt most, and it suggests the system can suffer extended losing stretches even though individual trades are often profitable. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, since the 36 trades spread the gains around, and the entry timing edge is strong: real entries beat 82% of random entries, so the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge appeared steadily, as the strategy was profitable in all four walk-forward test periods, meaning the profit did not come from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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