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Mean reversion · DIA · 1D

Does Williams %R bounce actually work on DIA? We tested it

We ran Williams %R bounce on DIA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 93 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +36.6%
Win rate 71.4%
Max drawdown −8.8%
Trades 35
Sharpe 0.66
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +4.4% 0.46 5
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +12.4% 1.19 8
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 −3.0% −0.29 8
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +4.3% 0.43 9
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.45. Worst period −3.0%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 12 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 12. We ship it on those.

DIA SHIPPED
93/100 EDGE
META
100/100 EDGE
NFLX
98/100 EDGE
UBER
98/100 EDGE
XOM
96/100 EDGE
JPM
93/100 EDGE
NVDA
92/100 EDGE
SPY
91/100 EDGE
GLD
82/100 EDGE
QQQ
81/100 EDGE
AVGO
80/100 EDGE
MU
79/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
RIOT
81/100 NONE
AMD
67/100 NONE
BA
65/100 NONE
IWM
62/100 NONE
GOOGL
58/100 NONE
MSTR
58/100 NONE
MSFT
56/100 NONE
COIN
55/100 NONE
AMZN
52/100 NONE
AAPL
47/100 NONE
SOFI
37/100 NONE
TSLA
12/100 NONE
MARA
10/100 NONE
SMCI
7/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen WILLR of close over 14 bars crosses above -90 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (WILLR of close over 14 bars is above -30)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 36.56% total return on DIA with a solid 71.43% win rate, meaning most of your trades were winners. The ride was relatively steady, with a maximum drawdown of only -8.78%, which happened during a single rough stretch from late February to late March 2026. The entry timing was a major strength, as your real entries outperformed 93% of random-entry simulations, showing that the setup itself is very good at picking the right moments to buy. The edge was also consistent, proving profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, so the results are not just from one lucky streak. Overall, the strategy's success is driven by its precise entry signals, not by just a few lucky trades.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.