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Mean reversion · QQQ · 1D

Does Williams %R bounce actually work on QQQ? We tested it

We ran Williams %R bounce on QQQ through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 81 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +54.2%
Win rate 82.1%
Max drawdown −22.4%
Trades 39
Sharpe 0.50
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −1.5% 0.08 5
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +4.2% 0.28 8
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +13.4% 1.12 9
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +15.9% 0.94 11
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.61. Worst period −1.5%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 12 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 12. We ship it on those.

QQQ SHIPPED
81/100 EDGE
META
100/100 EDGE
NFLX
98/100 EDGE
UBER
98/100 EDGE
XOM
96/100 EDGE
DIA
93/100 EDGE
JPM
93/100 EDGE
NVDA
92/100 EDGE
SPY
91/100 EDGE
GLD
82/100 EDGE
AVGO
80/100 EDGE
MU
79/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
RIOT
81/100 NONE
AMD
67/100 NONE
BA
65/100 NONE
IWM
62/100 NONE
GOOGL
58/100 NONE
MSTR
58/100 NONE
MSFT
56/100 NONE
COIN
55/100 NONE
AMZN
52/100 NONE
AAPL
47/100 NONE
SOFI
37/100 NONE
TSLA
12/100 NONE
MARA
10/100 NONE
SMCI
7/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen WILLR of close over 14 bars crosses above -90 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (WILLR of close over 14 bars is above -30)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, returning 54.2%, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst moment was a brutal 22.4% drawdown that happened in just 12 days during March 2020, which tells you the system can get crushed in a fast crash. The high win rate of 82% might look great, but the average trade only made 1.14%, so the profits came from many small wins rather than a few big home runs. The entry timing has a real edge, beating 81% of random entries, so the setup itself is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The edge was also consistent, showing up in 3 out of 4 test periods, meaning the result wasn't just a lucky streak from one good stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.