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Mean reversion · NVDA · 1D

Does Williams %R bounce actually work on NVDA? We tested it

We ran Williams %R bounce on NVDA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 92 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +153.7%
Win rate 73.7%
Max drawdown −31.0%
Trades 38
Sharpe 0.65
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −2.8% 0.10 3
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +35.9% 0.89 12
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +36.2% 1.18 9
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +23.8% 0.68 11
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.71. Worst period −2.8%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 12 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 12. We ship it on those.

NVDA SHIPPED
92/100 EDGE
META
100/100 EDGE
NFLX
98/100 EDGE
UBER
98/100 EDGE
XOM
96/100 EDGE
DIA
93/100 EDGE
JPM
93/100 EDGE
SPY
91/100 EDGE
GLD
82/100 EDGE
QQQ
81/100 EDGE
AVGO
80/100 EDGE
MU
79/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
RIOT
81/100 NONE
AMD
67/100 NONE
BA
65/100 NONE
IWM
62/100 NONE
GOOGL
58/100 NONE
MSTR
58/100 NONE
MSFT
56/100 NONE
COIN
55/100 NONE
AMZN
52/100 NONE
AAPL
47/100 NONE
SOFI
37/100 NONE
TSLA
12/100 NONE
MARA
10/100 NONE
SMCI
7/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen WILLR of close over 14 bars crosses above -90 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (WILLR of close over 14 bars is above -30)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 153.70% total return on NVDA using a Williams %R bounce setup. The ride was fairly lumpy, with a sharp -30.97% drawdown that hit hard during the March 2020 COVID crash, which was the worst stretch. The high win rate of 73.68% and average trade gain of 2.59% suggest the edge came from many small winners rather than a few big home runs. The entry timing was strong, beating 92% of random entry runs, meaning the specific moment you got in was a key driver of the results. The edge was also consistent, showing up in 3 out of 4 walk-forward periods, so it wasn't just one lucky streak carrying the whole performance.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.