Does Turtle Soup reversal actually work on JPM? We tested it
We ran Turtle Soup reversal on JPM through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 78 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 3. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall with a 28.24% total return, and the ride was very steady with an 82.14% win rate, meaning most trades were winners. However, the journey was lumpy in one big way: the worst drawdown of -11.30% lasted over two years from mid-2019 to late 2021, which is a very long and painful dry spell. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the average gain per trade was a modest 0.96% across 28 trades. The entry timing is doing most of the work here, since the entry-timing edge beat 78% of random entries, meaning the specific setup for getting in is strong. The edge was consistent across time, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, so the performance did not come from just one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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