Does Three-down-days bounce actually work on SMCI? We tested it

This strategy made money overall, turning a 185.93% total return on SMCI, and it did so with a high win rate of 71.05%, meaning most trades were winners. However, the ride was not smooth; the max drawdown of -20.62% was a painful stretch from late May 2024 to August 2025, which is where the strategy hurt the most. The entry timing is a key strength here, as the real entries beat 89% of random entry runs, so the setup itself is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The edge was also consistent, showing up in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, so the results are not just from one lucky streak. Overall, this is a solid setup that makes money steadily, but you have to be prepared for a significant 20% drawdown that can last over a year.