Does Three-down-days bounce actually work on GOOGL? We tested it
We ran Three-down-days bounce on GOOGL through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 82 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 6. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 55.82% total return across 97 trades, and the ride was fairly steady with a solid 75.26% win rate and a Sharpe ratio of 0.85. The worst hit came during a stretch from March to October 2018, where the account dropped 9.40%, so that was the most painful period. The result does not appear driven by just a few lucky trades, since the average trade returned a modest 0.47% and the win rate is high. The entry-timing edge is strong, with real entries beating 82% of random entry runs, meaning the entry signal itself is doing most of the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge held up well, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, so the performance was not concentrated in one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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