Does Stochastic %K/%D cross actually work on XOM? We tested it
We ran Stochastic %K/%D cross on XOM through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 92 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, with a 44% total return, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 19% drawdown that lasted over three years, which would have been extremely painful to sit through. The win rate is decent at 62.5%, and the average trade made 1.69%, but with only 24 trades total, the result could be driven by just a few big winners. The entry timing shows a strong edge, beating 92% of random entries, meaning the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits. The edge was consistent across three out of four test periods, so it wasn't just one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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