Does Stochastic %K/%D cross actually work on SPY? We tested it

This strategy made money overall, turning a 46% total return on SPY with a very high win rate of nearly 96%, meaning almost every trade was a winner. However, the ride was not smooth; the worst drawdown hit -16.44% and lasted from January to April 2025, which is a significant and painful stretch. The high win rate and modest average gain of 1.69% per trade suggest the result is not driven by a few big winners, but rather by many small, consistent wins. The entry-timing edge is strong, with real entries beating 95% of random entry runs, so the entry signal itself is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge held up across all four walk-forward periods, so the profit did not come from one lucky stretch.