EdgeStacker
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Mean reversion · QQQ · 1D

Does Stochastic %K/%D cross actually work on QQQ? We tested it

We ran Stochastic %K/%D cross on QQQ through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 91 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +71.9%
Win rate 80.6%
Max drawdown −22.4%
Trades 31
Sharpe 0.55
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +2.7% 0.20 4
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +7.6% 0.41 7
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +20.5% 1.77 6
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +3.3% 0.22 9
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.65. Worst period +2.7%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 7 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.

QQQ SHIPPED
91/100 EDGE
SPY
95/100 EDGE
AVGO
95/100 EDGE
XOM
92/100 EDGE
META
91/100 EDGE
NVDA
82/100 EDGE
JPM
76/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
NFLX
83/100 NONE
COIN
75/100 NONE
DIA
68/100 NONE
UBER
68/100 NONE
MSTR
61/100 NONE
MU
60/100 NONE
IWM
57/100 NONE
RIOT
55/100 NONE
AMZN
54/100 NONE
BA
53/100 NONE
MSFT
49/100 NONE
GLD
48/100 NONE
AAPL
26/100 NONE
SOFI
18/100 NONE
MARA
17/100 NONE
AMD
16/100 NONE
GOOGL
15/100 NONE
SMCI
10/100 NONE
TSLA
7/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen STOCH %K(14/3/3) of close crosses above STOCH %D(14/3/3) of close AND STOCH %K(14/3/3) of close is below 30 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (STOCH %K(14/3/3) of close is above 80)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money, turning a 71.9% total return over 31 trades, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst hit was a brutal 22.4% drawdown that happened in just a few days during March 2020, which tells you the setup can get crushed in a fast crash. The high 80% win rate and 1.8% average trade suggest the result is not driven by a few home runs, but rather by many small, consistent wins. The entry timing edge is strong, beating 91% of random entries, meaning the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge held up across all four test periods, so the profit was not just from one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.