Does Stochastic oversold bounce actually work on XOM? We tested it
We ran Stochastic oversold bounce on XOM through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 76 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 6. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy did make money overall, with a total return of 28.75% over 23 trades, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal drawdown of -18.32% that lasted nearly two years, from late 2022 to September 2024, which would have been painful to sit through. The win rate of 60.87% is decent, but the average trade only made 1.23%, so the profits were not huge on any single trade. The entry timing has a real edge, beating 76% of random entries, meaning the entry signal itself is a strong part of the strategy's success. The consistency figure shows the edge was present in 3 out of 4 test periods, so the profit did not come from just one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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