Does Stochastic oversold bounce actually work on QQQ? We tested it
We ran Stochastic oversold bounce on QQQ through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 76 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 6. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, returning nearly 50%, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst hit came in March 2020, when the account dropped over 22% in just a few days, which is a painful drawdown for most traders. With a win rate above 83%, most trades were winners, but the average gain per trade was small at 1.4%, meaning the overall result depended on having many small wins rather than a few big home runs. The entry timing is doing some work here, since real entries beat 76% of random entry runs, but that still leaves room for the exits to be the main driver of the edge. The consistency figure shows the edge showed up in 3 out of 4 test periods, so the profitability was not just from one lucky stretch, but it was not rock solid across all market conditions either.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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