Does RSI(2) below 5 dip buy actually work on XOM? We tested it
We ran RSI(2) below 5 dip buy on XOM through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 78 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 10. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 28.54% total return on XOM with a solid 62% win rate, but the ride was lumpy. The worst stretch was a painful 12.45% drawdown that dragged on for nearly nine months from mid-2022 into early 2023, which is where the strategy hurt most. The entry timing shows a real edge, beating 78% of random entry runs, meaning the specific signal of buying when the 2-period RSI dips below 5 while above the 200-day moving average is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the edge was consistent across all four walk-forward test periods, so the performance came steadily rather than from one hot streak. Overall, this setup works but requires patience to sit through long dry spells between winning trades.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Sign up free. EdgeStacker runs a fresh backtest for you, then alerts you on the Today screen when the setup fires.