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Mean reversion · UBER · 1D

Does RSI(2) below 5 dip buy actually work on UBER? We tested it

We ran RSI(2) below 5 dip buy on UBER through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 80 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +33.9%
Win rate 73.7%
Max drawdown −16.8%
Trades 19
Sharpe 0.55
Equity curve

Equity curve over May 2019 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Oct 2020 to Mar 2022 −1.3% 0.04 5
2 Mar 2022 to Aug 2023 +13.8% 1.71 3
3 Aug 2023 to Feb 2025 +9.3% 0.96 5
4 Feb 2025 to Jul 2026 +5.7% 0.90 4
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.90. Worst period −1.3%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 10 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 10. We ship it on those.

UBER SHIPPED
80/100 EDGE
GOOGL
95/100 EDGE
GLD
95/100 EDGE
MSFT
92/100 EDGE
AMD
91/100 EDGE
NVDA
84/100 EDGE
AVGO
84/100 EDGE
MU
83/100 EDGE
QQQ
81/100 EDGE
XOM
78/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MSTR
85/100 NONE
DIA
73/100 NONE
SPY
64/100 NONE
JPM
60/100 NONE
NFLX
48/100 NONE
SMCI
45/100 NONE
MARA
44/100 NONE
TSLA
42/100 NONE
IWM
40/100 NONE
META
37/100 NONE
AAPL
31/100 NONE
BA
30/100 NONE
AMZN
23/100 NONE
SOFI
17/100 NONE
RIOT
11/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
COIN
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen RSI of close over 2 bars is below 5 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (RSI of close over 2 bars is above 70)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 33.93% total return across 19 trades, but the ride was lumpy. The worst stretch was a 16.85% drawdown from February to May 2021, which is where the strategy hurt the most. With a 73.68% win rate and an average trade gain of 1.60%, the result does not look driven by just a few big winners. The entry-timing edge is strong, beating 80% of random entries, which means the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge held up in 3 out of 4 test periods, so the profit came from steady performance across different market stretches, not just one lucky run.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.