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Mean reversion · QQQ · 1D

Does RSI(2) below 5 dip buy actually work on QQQ? We tested it

We ran RSI(2) below 5 dip buy on QQQ through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 81 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +35.4%
Win rate 82.1%
Max drawdown −11.0%
Trades 39
Sharpe 0.56
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −0.2% 0.04 7
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +14.0% 1.49 9
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +0.9% 0.14 6
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +9.5% 0.77 11
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.61. Worst period −0.2%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 10 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 10. We ship it on those.

QQQ SHIPPED
81/100 EDGE
GOOGL
95/100 EDGE
GLD
95/100 EDGE
MSFT
92/100 EDGE
AMD
91/100 EDGE
NVDA
84/100 EDGE
AVGO
84/100 EDGE
MU
83/100 EDGE
UBER
80/100 EDGE
XOM
78/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MSTR
85/100 NONE
DIA
73/100 NONE
SPY
64/100 NONE
JPM
60/100 NONE
NFLX
48/100 NONE
SMCI
45/100 NONE
MARA
44/100 NONE
TSLA
42/100 NONE
IWM
40/100 NONE
META
37/100 NONE
AAPL
31/100 NONE
BA
30/100 NONE
AMZN
23/100 NONE
SOFI
17/100 NONE
RIOT
11/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
COIN
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen RSI of close over 2 bars is below 5 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (RSI of close over 2 bars is above 70)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 35.44% total return on QQQ with a very high win rate of 82%, meaning most of the 39 trades were winners. However, the ride was lumpy, as shown by a Sharpe ratio of just 0.56 and a worst drawdown of nearly 11% that hit from late February to mid-March 2025, which is where the pain was concentrated. The entry timing appears to be doing the heavy lifting here, since the real entries beat 81% of random entry runs, so getting in at the right moment is crucial. The edge was fairly consistent, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, so the result is not just from one lucky stretch. Overall, the setup works when it catches a dip, but the drawdown shows it can still suffer a sharp pullback.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.