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Mean reversion · GLD · 1D

Does RSI(2) below 5 dip buy actually work on GLD? We tested it

We ran RSI(2) below 5 dip buy on GLD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 95 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +22.6%
Win rate 72.7%
Max drawdown −9.9%
Trades 33
Sharpe 0.49
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +0.6% 0.09 6
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 −0.7% −0.07 6
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +1.7% 0.52 7
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +13.6% 0.99 11
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.38. Worst period −0.7%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 10 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 10. We ship it on those.

GLD SHIPPED
95/100 EDGE
GOOGL
95/100 EDGE
MSFT
92/100 EDGE
AMD
91/100 EDGE
NVDA
84/100 EDGE
AVGO
84/100 EDGE
MU
83/100 EDGE
QQQ
81/100 EDGE
UBER
80/100 EDGE
XOM
78/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MSTR
85/100 NONE
DIA
73/100 NONE
SPY
64/100 NONE
JPM
60/100 NONE
NFLX
48/100 NONE
SMCI
45/100 NONE
MARA
44/100 NONE
TSLA
42/100 NONE
IWM
40/100 NONE
META
37/100 NONE
AAPL
31/100 NONE
BA
30/100 NONE
AMZN
23/100 NONE
SOFI
17/100 NONE
RIOT
11/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
COIN
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen RSI of close over 2 bars is below 5 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (RSI of close over 2 bars is above 70)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, gaining 22.63% on 33 trades, and it had a high win rate of nearly 73%, meaning most trades were winners. However, the ride was lumpy, not steady, with a maximum drawdown of -9.92% that lasted about five months from late October 2025 to late March 2026, which is where it hurt the most. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the entry-timing edge is strong: real entries beat 95% of random entry runs, so the entry signal itself is carrying the result, not the exits. The edge also shows up consistently across time, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, meaning the performance didn't come from just one lucky stretch. In short, this setup reliably catches good dip entries but can still suffer a significant, prolonged drawdown during tough market conditions.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.