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Mean reversion · MU · 1D

Does RSI(2) dip, MA exit actually work on MU? We tested it

We ran RSI(2) dip, MA exit on MU through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 100 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +213.4%
Win rate 75.8%
Max drawdown −22.7%
Trades 62
Sharpe 0.98
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −0.9% 0.01 9
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +33.0% 1.69 12
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +15.6% 0.76 15
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +40.0% 1.04 11
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.88. Worst period −0.9%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 9 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.

MU SHIPPED
100/100 EDGE
NVDA
100/100 EDGE
AMD
99/100 EDGE
MSFT
98/100 EDGE
MSTR
96/100 EDGE
AVGO
94/100 EDGE
QQQ
86/100 EDGE
META
81/100 EDGE
SPY
80/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
GLD
81/100 NONE
GOOGL
68/100 NONE
AAPL
66/100 NONE
DIA
60/100 NONE
BA
60/100 NONE
XOM
60/100 NONE
SMCI
50/100 NONE
TSLA
45/100 NONE
COIN
44/100 NONE
IWM
37/100 NONE
UBER
35/100 NONE
AMZN
34/100 NONE
NFLX
31/100 NONE
SOFI
30/100 NONE
MARA
30/100 NONE
RIOT
30/100 NONE
JPM
26/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen RSI of close over 2 bars is below 10 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close is above SMA of close over 5 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 213% total return, but the ride was lumpy with a maximum drawdown of nearly 23% that hit hard in March 2026. The worst stretch lasted about three and a half weeks, which is where the pain was concentrated. With 62 trades and a 75% win rate, the result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the average trade returned a solid 1.95%. The entry timing edge is extremely strong, with real entries beating 100% of random entry runs, meaning the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge held up in 3 out of 4 walk forward periods, so the performance is not from one lucky stretch but appears steady across different market conditions.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.