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Mean reversion · META · 1D

Does RSI(2) dip, MA exit actually work on META? We tested it

We ran RSI(2) dip, MA exit on META through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 81 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +95.2%
Win rate 79.1%
Max drawdown −13.9%
Trades 67
Sharpe 0.77
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +6.1% 0.43 13
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +16.8% 1.12 16
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +14.7% 0.68 13
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +7.9% 0.40 14
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.66. Worst period +6.1%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 9 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.

META SHIPPED
81/100 EDGE
NVDA
100/100 EDGE
MU
100/100 EDGE
AMD
99/100 EDGE
MSFT
98/100 EDGE
MSTR
96/100 EDGE
AVGO
94/100 EDGE
QQQ
86/100 EDGE
SPY
80/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
GLD
81/100 NONE
GOOGL
68/100 NONE
AAPL
66/100 NONE
DIA
60/100 NONE
BA
60/100 NONE
XOM
60/100 NONE
SMCI
50/100 NONE
TSLA
45/100 NONE
COIN
44/100 NONE
IWM
37/100 NONE
UBER
35/100 NONE
AMZN
34/100 NONE
NFLX
31/100 NONE
SOFI
30/100 NONE
MARA
30/100 NONE
RIOT
30/100 NONE
JPM
26/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen RSI of close over 2 bars is below 10 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close is above SMA of close over 5 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 95% total return on META over the test period. The ride was fairly steady, with a high win rate of 79% and an average gain of about 1% per trade, but it did have one sharp, lumpy moment: the worst drawdown was a 13.87% loss that happened in just a few days in early April 2025. That drawdown tells you the strategy can get hit hard and fast when it goes wrong, even though it recovers well. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the consistency shows it was profitable in all four walk-forward periods, meaning the edge held up across different market stretches. The entry timing is doing a good share of the work here, since the real entries beat 81% of random entry runs, so getting in at the right RSI dip matters, but the exits also contribute because the strategy still wins even when entries are random.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.