Does RSI(2) dip, MA exit actually work on SPY? We tested it
We ran RSI(2) dip, MA exit on SPY through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 80 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 9. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 44.44% total return over 79 trades, and it won on nearly three out of every four trades. The ride was not smooth, with a maximum drawdown of -14.28% that stretched from late 2017 through early 2020, meaning that period was where the strategy hurt the most. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, because the consistency test shows it was profitable in three out of four separate time periods, so the edge showed up across different market conditions. The entry timing is strong, beating 80% of random entry attempts, which means the entry signal itself is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exits.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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