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Mean reversion · MSFT · 1D

Does Pin bar at a 20-day low actually work on MSFT? We tested it

We ran Pin bar at a 20-day low on MSFT through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 93 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +24.0%
Win rate 73.3%
Max drawdown −11.7%
Trades 15
Sharpe 0.46
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +3.4% 0.88 1
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +12.8% 0.91 5
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +5.1% 0.51 5
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +3.7% 0.35 4
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.66. Worst period +3.4%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 7 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.

MSFT SHIPPED
93/100 EDGE
AVGO
95/100 EDGE
GOOGL
90/100 EDGE
AAPL
85/100 EDGE
NVDA
81/100 EDGE
AMD
80/100 EDGE
JPM
78/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
QQQ
71/100 NONE
COIN
71/100 NONE
PLTR
66/100 NONE
META
50/100 NONE
MARA
49/100 NONE
TSLA
46/100 NONE
SOFI
40/100 NONE
GLD
40/100 NONE
SPY
38/100 NONE
RIOT
30/100 NONE
XOM
29/100 NONE
MU
24/100 NONE
MSTR
20/100 NONE
AMZN
19/100 NONE
UBER
18/100 NONE
SMCI
13/100 NONE
BA
9/100 NONE
IWM
5/100 NONE
DIA
2/100 NONE
NFLX
1/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen a bullish pin bar (hammer) forms AND low is at or below LOWEST of low over 20 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close is at or above HIGHEST of close over 5 bars), or 10 bars have passed since entry (time stop)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 24% gain on Microsoft across 15 trades, but the ride was far from smooth. The worst moment hit with an 11.74% drawdown in June 2026, which is a painful hole to dig out of for a swing trader. The high win rate of 73% looks good, but with only 15 trades, that result could easily be driven by a lucky streak rather than a reliable edge. The entry timing is strong, beating 93% of random entries, meaning the setup itself is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge held up across all four test periods, so it wasn't just one lucky stretch, but the small number of trades means you should be cautious about expecting this performance to repeat.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.