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Mean reversion · AVGO · 1D

Does Pin bar at a 20-day low actually work on AVGO? We tested it

We ran Pin bar at a 20-day low on AVGO through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 95 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +64.4%
Win rate 88.0%
Max drawdown −28.3%
Trades 25
Sharpe 0.51
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +6.8% 0.32 5
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +0.2% 0.07 4
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +10.5% 1.46 4
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +27.2% 1.35 5
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.80. Worst period +0.2%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 7 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.

AVGO SHIPPED
95/100 EDGE
MSFT
93/100 EDGE
GOOGL
90/100 EDGE
AAPL
85/100 EDGE
NVDA
81/100 EDGE
AMD
80/100 EDGE
JPM
78/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
QQQ
71/100 NONE
COIN
71/100 NONE
PLTR
66/100 NONE
META
50/100 NONE
MARA
49/100 NONE
TSLA
46/100 NONE
SOFI
40/100 NONE
GLD
40/100 NONE
SPY
38/100 NONE
RIOT
30/100 NONE
XOM
29/100 NONE
MU
24/100 NONE
MSTR
20/100 NONE
AMZN
19/100 NONE
UBER
18/100 NONE
SMCI
13/100 NONE
BA
9/100 NONE
IWM
5/100 NONE
DIA
2/100 NONE
NFLX
1/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen a bullish pin bar (hammer) forms AND low is at or below LOWEST of low over 20 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close is at or above HIGHEST of close over 5 bars), or 10 bars have passed since entry (time stop)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, returning 64.43% across 25 trades, and it won 88% of the time, so most trades were small winners. However, the ride was very lumpy, with a brutal 28.31% drawdown that stretched from August 2019 to March 2020, which is where it hurt the most. That drawdown was likely driven by just a few bad trades during that period, since the average win was only 2.09%. The entry timing has a strong edge, beating 95% of random entries, so the setup itself is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The edge also showed up consistently across all four walk forward periods, meaning it wasn't just one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.