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Mean reversion · AMD · 1D

Does Pin bar at a 20-day low actually work on AMD? We tested it

We ran Pin bar at a 20-day low on AMD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 80 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +77.8%
Win rate 63.0%
Max drawdown −18.0%
Trades 27
Sharpe 0.62
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +6.1% 0.37 4
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +28.0% 0.91 8
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +5.5% 0.36 6
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +12.7% 0.75 5
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.60. Worst period +5.5%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 7 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.

AMD SHIPPED
80/100 EDGE
AVGO
95/100 EDGE
MSFT
93/100 EDGE
GOOGL
90/100 EDGE
AAPL
85/100 EDGE
NVDA
81/100 EDGE
JPM
78/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
QQQ
71/100 NONE
COIN
71/100 NONE
PLTR
66/100 NONE
META
50/100 NONE
MARA
49/100 NONE
TSLA
46/100 NONE
SOFI
40/100 NONE
GLD
40/100 NONE
SPY
38/100 NONE
RIOT
30/100 NONE
XOM
29/100 NONE
MU
24/100 NONE
MSTR
20/100 NONE
AMZN
19/100 NONE
UBER
18/100 NONE
SMCI
13/100 NONE
BA
9/100 NONE
IWM
5/100 NONE
DIA
2/100 NONE
NFLX
1/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen a bullish pin bar (hammer) forms AND low is at or below LOWEST of low over 20 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close is at or above HIGHEST of close over 5 bars), or 10 bars have passed since entry (time stop)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

The strategy made money overall, turning a 77.75% total return across 27 trades, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a painful 18% drawdown that lasted nearly a year, from early 2021 into early 2022, which is where it hurt most. The win rate is solid at nearly 63%, and the average trade gained 2.30%, so the result is not driven by just a few huge winners. The entry timing shows a real edge, beating 80% of random entries, meaning the entry itself is carrying the result rather than the exits. The edge was consistent across all four walk-forward periods, so it did not come from just one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.