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Mean reversion · META · 1D

Does Four-down-days bounce actually work on META? We tested it

We ran Four-down-days bounce on META through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 86 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +31.8%
Win rate 73.7%
Max drawdown −5.7%
Trades 38
Sharpe 0.77
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +3.2% 0.42 9
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +9.5% 1.38 9
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +1.6% 0.20 8
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +4.8% 0.67 8
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.67. Worst period +1.6%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 7 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.

META SHIPPED
86/100 EDGE
NVDA
100/100 EDGE
TSLA
98/100 EDGE
AAPL
92/100 EDGE
UBER
81/100 EDGE
MSTR
79/100 EDGE
AVGO
77/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
JPM
77/100 NONE
GOOGL
74/100 NONE
AMZN
63/100 NONE
MU
58/100 NONE
AMD
52/100 NONE
MSFT
46/100 NONE
RIOT
42/100 NONE
DIA
36/100 NONE
SPY
34/100 NONE
XOM
27/100 NONE
SMCI
22/100 NONE
IWM
21/100 NONE
COIN
21/100 NONE
MARA
19/100 NONE
GLD
18/100 NONE
SOFI
12/100 NONE
QQQ
8/100 NONE
NFLX
7/100 NONE
BA
5/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close is above SMA of close over 200 bars AND close is below close 1 bar ago AND close 1 bar ago is below close 2 bars ago AND close 2 bars ago is below close 3 bars ago AND close 3 bars ago is below close 4 bars ago
Exitwhen a signal fires (close is above close 1 bar ago), or 10 bars have passed since entry (time stop)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 31.82% gain on META with a high win rate of nearly 74%, meaning most trades were winners. The ride was fairly steady, with a maximum loss of only 5.68% from the account, which happened during a stretch from late May to mid-July 2024. That worst drawdown period was the only real pain point, and it wasn't driven by a handful of bad trades since the strategy took 38 trades total. The entry timing shows a real edge, beating 86% of random entries, so the entry signal itself is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The edge was consistent across all four test periods, so the profit didn't come from just one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.