Does Four-down-days bounce actually work on TSLA? We tested it
We ran Four-down-days bounce on TSLA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 98 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, returning 76% on 27 trades with a solid 67% win rate. The ride was lumpy, with the worst drawdown of nearly 19% happening during a sharp selloff in March 2020, which shows the setup can get hit hard during fast downturns. The entry timing is a major strength here, as the real entries outperformed 98% of random entry runs, meaning the specific four down days condition is doing the heavy lifting rather than the exits. The edge was consistent across all four test periods, so the profit did not come from just one lucky stretch. The main pain point was that single March 2020 drawdown, which was deep and fast, but the strategy recovered and finished positive overall.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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