Does Four-down-days bounce actually work on AAPL? We tested it
We ran Four-down-days bounce on AAPL through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 92 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, returning nearly 34% with a high win rate of almost 78%, so most trades were winners. The ride was fairly steady, with a maximum drawdown of only about 4.6%, though that losing stretch lasted from May 2023 to January 2024, which is where it hurt most. With only 36 trades total, the result is not driven by just a few big winners, as the average trade gained 0.83%. The entry timing shows a strong edge, beating 92% of random entries, meaning the specific setup of buying after four down days above the 200-day average is doing the heavy lifting. The consistency figure shows the edge held up across three out of four test periods, so the profit did not come from just one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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