Does Five-day-low pullback actually work on QQQ? We tested it
We ran Five-day-low pullback on QQQ through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 80 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 3. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 132% total return on QQQ over the test period. The ride was fairly steady, with a win rate of 76% and an average gain of 0.73% per trade, but it did have one painful stretch: a 12.59% drawdown that lasted from early 2018 to mid-2019, which is where the strategy hurt most. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, since 122 trades were taken and the edge was consistent across all four walk-forward periods. The entry timing itself is doing a lot of the work here, as the real entries beat 80% of random entry runs, meaning the setup for getting in is strong. Overall, this is a reliable pullback pattern that grinds out steady wins, but you need to be prepared for a long recovery period when the market trends against you.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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