Does Bullish engulfing in an uptrend actually work on XOM? We tested it
We ran Bullish engulfing in an uptrend on XOM through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 86 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 2. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 32% gain on XOM with a solid win rate of nearly 58%, but the ride was lumpy. The worst stretch was a 13.3% drawdown that lasted over a year, from October 2024 into early 2026, which would have been painful to sit through. With only 33 trades over the entire period, the result is not driven by a huge number of bets, but the average trade return of 0.9% suggests each win was modest. The entry-timing edge is strong, as your real entries beat 86% of random entry runs, meaning the specific moment you got in was a key driver of the profit. However, the consistency figure shows the edge was not steady, as the strategy was profitable in only 3 out of 4 walk-forward periods, so the overall gain likely came from one or two strong stretches rather than reliable performance across all market conditions.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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