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Mean reversion · XOM · 1D

Does Bullish engulfing in an uptrend actually work on XOM? We tested it

We ran Bullish engulfing in an uptrend on XOM through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 86 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +32.1%
Win rate 57.6%
Max drawdown −13.3%
Trades 33
Sharpe 0.52
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +0.7% 0.22 2
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +11.4% 0.72 7
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +17.8% 1.21 10
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 −4.3% −0.28 10
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.47. Worst period −4.3%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 2 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 2. We ship it on those.

XOM SHIPPED
86/100 EDGE
SOFI
83/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
COIN
95/100 NONE
RIOT
72/100 NONE
MARA
68/100 NONE
MSTR
32/100 NONE
IWM
29/100 NONE
UBER
25/100 NONE
SMCI
17/100 NONE
BA
10/100 NONE
NFLX
4/100 NONE
GLD
4/100 NONE
AMZN
2/100 NONE
META
1/100 NONE
SPY
0/100 NONE
QQQ
0/100 NONE
DIA
0/100 NONE
AAPL
0/100 NONE
MSFT
0/100 NONE
NVDA
0/100 NONE
GOOGL
0/100 NONE
TSLA
0/100 NONE
AVGO
0/100 NONE
AMD
0/100 NONE
MU
0/100 NONE
JPM
0/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen a bullish engulfing candle forms AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen 5 bars have passed since entry (time stop)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 32% gain on XOM with a solid win rate of nearly 58%, but the ride was lumpy. The worst stretch was a 13.3% drawdown that lasted over a year, from October 2024 into early 2026, which would have been painful to sit through. With only 33 trades over the entire period, the result is not driven by a huge number of bets, but the average trade return of 0.9% suggests each win was modest. The entry-timing edge is strong, as your real entries beat 86% of random entry runs, meaning the specific moment you got in was a key driver of the profit. However, the consistency figure shows the edge was not steady, as the strategy was profitable in only 3 out of 4 walk-forward periods, so the overall gain likely came from one or two strong stretches rather than reliable performance across all market conditions.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.