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Mean reversion · SOFI · 1D

Does Bullish engulfing in an uptrend actually work on SOFI? We tested it

We ran Bullish engulfing in an uptrend on SOFI through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 83 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +107.4%
Win rate 60.9%
Max drawdown −15.2%
Trades 23
Sharpe 0.97
Equity curve

Equity curve over Nov 2020 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Jan 2022 to Mar 2023 +23.1% 1.54 2
2 Mar 2023 to Apr 2024 +29.0% 1.12 8
3 Apr 2024 to Jun 2025 +7.2% 0.66 5
4 Jun 2025 to Jul 2026 +25.7% 1.45 6
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 1.19. Worst period +7.2%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 2 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 2. We ship it on those.

SOFI SHIPPED
83/100 EDGE
XOM
86/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
COIN
95/100 NONE
RIOT
72/100 NONE
MARA
68/100 NONE
MSTR
32/100 NONE
IWM
29/100 NONE
UBER
25/100 NONE
SMCI
17/100 NONE
BA
10/100 NONE
NFLX
4/100 NONE
GLD
4/100 NONE
AMZN
2/100 NONE
META
1/100 NONE
SPY
0/100 NONE
QQQ
0/100 NONE
DIA
0/100 NONE
AAPL
0/100 NONE
MSFT
0/100 NONE
NVDA
0/100 NONE
GOOGL
0/100 NONE
TSLA
0/100 NONE
AVGO
0/100 NONE
AMD
0/100 NONE
MU
0/100 NONE
JPM
0/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen a bullish engulfing candle forms AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen 5 bars have passed since entry (time stop)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money, turning a 107% total return on SOFI over 23 trades, but the ride was lumpy. The worst stretch was a 15.20% drawdown from late July to late August 2023, which is where the strategy hurt most. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as 60.87% of trades were winners and the average trade returned 3.55%. The entry timing is doing most of the work here, since real entries beat 83% of random entry runs, meaning the setup itself is picking good spots to get in. The edge is consistent, as the strategy was profitable in all four walk-forward test periods, so the performance didn't come from one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.