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Mean reversion · MSTR · 1D

Does Connors Double 7s actually work on MSTR? We tested it

We ran Connors Double 7s on MSTR through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 83 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +198.4%
Win rate 62.1%
Max drawdown −44.5%
Trades 58
Sharpe 0.57
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −33.4% −0.87 13
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +29.8% 0.61 15
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +79.8% 1.05 16
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +64.9% 0.92 13
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.43. Worst period −33.4%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 6 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 6. We ship it on those.

MSTR SHIPPED
83/100 EDGE
GLD
97/100 EDGE
XOM
96/100 EDGE
AMD
85/100 EDGE
NFLX
81/100 EDGE
META
76/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MARA
76/100 NONE
SMCI
74/100 NONE
UBER
72/100 NONE
QQQ
65/100 NONE
NVDA
64/100 NONE
COIN
63/100 NONE
RIOT
58/100 NONE
BA
44/100 NONE
MSFT
38/100 NONE
TSLA
34/100 NONE
DIA
32/100 NONE
AMZN
27/100 NONE
SOFI
26/100 NONE
JPM
23/100 NONE
MU
21/100 NONE
SPY
19/100 NONE
AVGO
19/100 NONE
GOOGL
17/100 NONE
AAPL
7/100 NONE
IWM
2/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close is above SMA of close over 200 bars AND close is at or below LOWEST of close over 7 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close is at or above HIGHEST of close over 7 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 198% total return on 58 trades, but the ride was extremely lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 44.48% drawdown that lasted from September 2018 to March 2020, which would have been very painful to sit through. The entry timing shows a clear edge, beating 83% of random entry runs, meaning the specific conditions for getting in are carrying the result rather than the exits. The edge was not consistent across all market conditions, as the strategy was only profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, so the profits came from specific stretches rather than steady performance. The win rate of 62% with an average gain of 2.52% per trade suggests the result is not driven by just a few huge winners, but the long drawdown period shows this setup can go through extended losing phases.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.