Does CCI oversold bounce actually work on MSTR? We tested it
We ran CCI oversold bounce on MSTR through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 76 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning an 85.94% total return, but the ride was extremely lumpy. The worst moment was a gut-wrenching 55.71% drawdown from late November 2021 to late January 2022, which means you would have watched nearly half your account evaporate before recovering. With only 21 trades over the entire period, the result is driven by a small number of trades, so one or two big winners are likely carrying the performance. The entry timing has a real edge, beating 76% of random entries, which means the entry signal itself is doing most of the work rather than the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge showed up in 3 out of 4 test periods, so it is not a fluke from one lucky stretch, but that one losing period was brutal.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
Sign up free. EdgeStacker runs a fresh backtest for you, then alerts you on the Today screen when the setup fires.