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Mean reversion · META · 1D

Does CCI oversold bounce actually work on META? We tested it

We ran CCI oversold bounce on META through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 92 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +125.8%
Win rate 87.9%
Max drawdown −33.0%
Trades 33
Sharpe 0.70
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −4.7% 0.02 6
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +33.4% 1.31 7
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +27.2% 1.29 7
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +22.4% 0.74 9
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.84. Worst period −4.7%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 7 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.

META SHIPPED
92/100 EDGE
DIA
93/100 EDGE
UBER
90/100 EDGE
NFLX
87/100 EDGE
MSTR
76/100 EDGE
NVDA
75/100 EDGE
AVGO
75/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
COIN
91/100 NONE
RIOT
71/100 NONE
AMZN
66/100 NONE
XOM
61/100 NONE
GLD
57/100 NONE
JPM
54/100 NONE
SPY
52/100 NONE
MARA
46/100 NONE
GOOGL
45/100 NONE
QQQ
40/100 NONE
MSFT
36/100 NONE
BA
27/100 NONE
AMD
26/100 NONE
IWM
17/100 NONE
MU
15/100 NONE
AAPL
12/100 NONE
TSLA
12/100 NONE
SMCI
5/100 NONE
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
SOFI
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen CCI of close over 20 bars crosses above -100 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (CCI of close over 20 bars is above 100)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 125.78% total return on META with a high win rate of nearly 88%, meaning most trades were winners. However, the ride was very lumpy, with a worst drawdown of -32.96% that occurred during the COVID crash in early 2020, which would have been a painful period to hold through. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the average trade returned a solid 2.63% across 33 trades. The entry-timing edge is strong, with real entries beating 92% of random entry runs, so the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits. Consistency was decent, with the edge showing up in 3 out of 4 walk-forward periods, meaning the strategy worked steadily across different market stretches rather than relying on one lucky streak.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.