Does CCI oversold bounce actually work on DIA? We tested it
We ran CCI oversold bounce on DIA through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 93 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 63.59% total return on DIA with 32 trades. The ride was very steady, with a high win rate of 93.75% and an average gain of 1.57% per trade, but it did have one painful stretch where it lost 14.12% from late February to early April 2025. That drawdown was the worst part, and it shows that even a high-win-rate system can have a rough period. The result is not driven by just a few big winners, since most trades were small winners. The entry itself is carrying the result, because the entry-timing edge is very strong, beating 93% of random entries, meaning the timing of getting in is what makes the strategy work. The edge is consistent, as the strategy was profitable in all four walk-forward test periods, so the performance did not come from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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