Does CCI oversold bounce actually work on AVGO? We tested it
We ran CCI oversold bounce on AVGO through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 75 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 225% total return on AVGO with a high 85.71% win rate, meaning most trades were winners. However, the ride was very lumpy, as shown by a Sharpe ratio of 0.83 and a brutal maximum drawdown of -38.10% that lasted from mid-February to early April 2025, which is where it hurt the most. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, since the average trade returned a solid 3.54% across 35 trades, and the consistency figure shows it was profitable in all 4 walk-forward test periods, so the edge held up steadily over time. The entry-timing edge figure of 75% indicates that the entry itself is doing meaningful work, but it is not overwhelmingly dominant, meaning the exits also contribute to the overall success.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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