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Mean reversion · MSFT · 1D

Does Bollinger snapback actually work on MSFT? We tested it

We ran Bollinger snapback on MSFT through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 99 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +243.0%
Win rate 81.0%
Max drawdown −21.6%
Trades 42
Sharpe 1.02
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +16.6% 0.53 6
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +46.4% 1.56 11
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +28.0% 1.20 9
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +15.3% 0.69 11
4 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.99. Worst period +15.3%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 5 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 5. We ship it on those.

MSFT SHIPPED
99/100 EDGE
AMZN
83/100 EDGE
AVGO
81/100 EDGE
SMCI
81/100 EDGE
UBER
75/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
JPM
71/100 NONE
SPY
70/100 NONE
MARA
62/100 NONE
GLD
59/100 NONE
MU
58/100 NONE
MSTR
57/100 NONE
NFLX
56/100 NONE
PLTR
54/100 NONE
GOOGL
49/100 NONE
DIA
47/100 NONE
AMD
45/100 NONE
NVDA
43/100 NONE
IWM
42/100 NONE
QQQ
37/100 NONE
COIN
37/100 NONE
META
34/100 NONE
SOFI
32/100 NONE
XOM
31/100 NONE
RIOT
27/100 NONE
TSLA
21/100 NONE
BA
21/100 NONE
AAPL
9/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen close crosses below BBANDS lower band of close over 20 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses above BBANDS middle band of close over 20 bars)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a solid 243% profit over 42 trades, with a high 80.95% win rate and an average gain of 3.06% per trade. The ride was mostly smooth, but it had one very rough patch: a 21.63% drawdown that happened in March 2020, which lines up with the COVID crash. That single period was where the strategy hurt the most, and it was the only major setback. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, because the entry timing edge is very strong, beating 99% of random entry runs. This means the entry signal itself is doing the heavy lifting, not the exits. The edge also showed up consistently across all four walk forward test periods, so it was not a fluke from one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.