Does Bollinger dip in an uptrend actually work on NFLX? We tested it
We ran Bollinger dip in an uptrend on NFLX through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 81 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 61% total return on Netflix over the test period. However, the ride was extremely lumpy, with a brutal maximum drawdown of nearly 45% that lasted from late 2021 into early 2023, which is where the strategy hurt the most. The high win rate of 77% and average trade gain of 2.78% suggest the setup caught many small winners, but the deep drawdown shows it got caught in a major downtrend. The entry timing appears to be doing the heavy lifting here, since the real entries beat 81% of random entry runs, meaning the specific moment you buy on the dip matters a lot. The edge was not consistent across all market conditions, as the strategy was profitable in only 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, indicating that the bulk of the gains likely came from one favorable stretch rather than steady performance.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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