Does Bollinger dip in an uptrend actually work on MU? We tested it
We ran Bollinger dip in an uptrend on MU through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 83 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a strong profit overall, turning a 293% total return on MU over 24 trades. The ride was lumpy, not steady, because the worst drawdown hit a painful -37.66% during a short but brutal stretch in March 2020. That single drawdown period, from March 4 to March 16, 2020, is where the strategy hurt the most and likely accounts for most of the risk you would have felt. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, since the win rate is high at 87.5% and the average trade returned a solid 6.17%. The entry-timing edge is strong, with real entries beating 83% of random entry runs, meaning the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits doing the heavy lifting. The edge shows up steadily across all four walk-forward test periods, so it is not a fluke from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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