Does Bollinger dip in an uptrend actually work on MSFT? We tested it
We ran Bollinger dip in an uptrend on MSFT through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 88 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money overall, turning a 75.82% total return on 22 trades with a high 77.27% win rate. The ride was lumpy, as the Sharpe ratio of 0.62 and a steep 21.63% drawdown from March 2 to March 16, 2020, show that the worst pain came during the COVID crash. The result is not driven by just a few trades, since the average trade returned a solid 2.64% and the win rate is high. The entry-timing edge is strong, with real entries beating 88% of random entry runs, meaning the entry itself is carrying the result rather than the exits. The edge is consistent, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward test periods, so the performance did not come from just one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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