Does Bollinger dip in an uptrend actually work on GLD? We tested it
We ran Bollinger dip in an uptrend on GLD through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 93 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made money, returning 41.22% over 21 trades, and the ride was relatively steady with a high win rate of 76.19% and an average gain of 1.68% per trade. The worst moment was a drawdown of -9.92% that lasted from August 2025 to March 2026, which is where the strategy hurt most. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the entry timing edge is strong: real entries beat 93% of random entry runs, meaning the entry signal itself is carrying the result rather than the exits. The edge also shows up consistently, as the strategy was profitable in all four walk-forward test periods, so the performance did not come from one lucky stretch. Overall, this is a solid, repeatable setup that makes money by buying dips in an uptrend, with the main pain point being a prolonged drawdown period.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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