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Trend · RIOT · 1D

Does Awesome Oscillator zero cross actually work on RIOT? We tested it

We ran Awesome Oscillator zero cross on RIOT through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 86 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +4400.3%
Win rate 36.7%
Max drawdown −88.8%
Trades 49
Sharpe 1.02
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +149.3% 1.18 8
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +407.7% 1.52 9
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 −31.1% 0.08 14
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +90.9% 0.99 9
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.94. Worst period −31.1%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 7 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.

RIOT SHIPPED
86/100 EDGE
GLD
94/100 EDGE
NFLX
93/100 EDGE
AMD
92/100 EDGE
AAPL
83/100 EDGE
TSLA
79/100 EDGE
QQQ
75/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
MARA
98/100 NONE
META
68/100 NONE
AVGO
66/100 NONE
IWM
65/100 NONE
NVDA
62/100 NONE
AMZN
60/100 NONE
GOOGL
58/100 NONE
SPY
55/100 NONE
DIA
55/100 NONE
JPM
55/100 NONE
MU
52/100 NONE
SMCI
50/100 NONE
MSFT
49/100 NONE
XOM
46/100 NONE
MSTR
41/100 NONE
COIN
40/100 NONE
PLTR
35/100 NONE
BA
31/100 NONE
UBER
24/100 NONE
SOFI
19/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen AO(5/34) of close crosses above 0
Exitwhen a signal fires (AO(5/34) of close crosses below 0)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a massive amount of money, turning a $4,400 gain on a hypothetical starting amount, but the ride was extremely lumpy and painful. The worst stretch was a brutal 88.83% drawdown that lasted over three and a half years, from early 2021 to late 2024, which would have been very hard to sit through. With only 36.73% of trades being winners, the overall profit was driven by a few big winning trades that made up for many small losses. The entry timing is strong, as the real entries beat 86% of random entries, meaning the signal to buy when the Awesome Oscillator crosses above zero is doing most of the heavy lifting. The edge is also consistent, showing up in three out of four test periods, so the result is not just a fluke from one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.