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Trend · RIOT · 1D

Does RSI(14) 50-line cross actually work on RIOT? We tested it

We ran RSI(14) 50-line cross on RIOT through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 99 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +1947.8%
Win rate 28.1%
Max drawdown −76.1%
Trades 64
Sharpe 0.92
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 −27.9% −0.73 6
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 +751.3% 1.87 12
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +2.7% 0.35 13
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +10.5% 0.43 18
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.48. Worst period −27.9%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 4 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 4. We ship it on those.

RIOT SHIPPED
99/100 EDGE
MSTR
84/100 EDGE
XOM
84/100 EDGE
GOOGL
81/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
NFLX
89/100 NONE
MARA
77/100 NONE
SMCI
72/100 NONE
MSFT
59/100 NONE
JPM
55/100 NONE
COIN
51/100 NONE
UBER
48/100 NONE
AAPL
44/100 NONE
META
35/100 NONE
MU
35/100 NONE
GLD
34/100 NONE
SOFI
25/100 NONE
DIA
23/100 NONE
TSLA
18/100 NONE
IWM
17/100 NONE
AMZN
13/100 NONE
AVGO
12/100 NONE
AMD
10/100 NONE
BA
7/100 NONE
NVDA
6/100 NONE
SPY
3/100 NONE
QQQ
2/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
PLTR
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen RSI of close over 14 bars crosses above 50 AND close is above SMA of close over 200 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (RSI of close over 14 bars crosses below 50)
Sizing**Position size:** no fixed stop distance to size against. This strategy exits on signal only. Size by conviction, or add a hard stop for a size-by-risk number.
Diagnosis

This strategy made a huge amount of money overall, turning a starting account into nearly 20 times its original size. However, the ride was extremely lumpy, with a brutal drawdown of 76% that lasted for over two and a half years, which means you would have had to stomach seeing most of your money disappear before the big gains came. The win rate is low at only 28%, so most trades lost money, but the winners were massive enough to more than cover the losses. The entry timing edge is very strong, beating 99% of random entries, which tells you that the specific moment you get in is carrying the result rather than the exits doing the heavy lifting. The edge was also consistent, showing up in three out of four test periods, so the success was not just from one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.