Does Keltner channel breakout actually work on RIOT? We tested it
We ran Keltner channel breakout on RIOT through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 4 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 99 of 100 random-entry runs.
You gave up raw return for a higher win rate and a shallower drawdown. This setup is about timing and staying out of trouble, not beating the index.
Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.
The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 5. We ship it on those.
Show every ticker we tested
This strategy made a huge amount of money, turning a starting amount into nearly 20 times that over the whole test. However, the ride was extremely lumpy, with a brutal drawdown of over 64% that lasted more than a year from late 2017 into early 2019, which would have been very painful to sit through. The result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, as the win rate is close to 50% and the average trade return is solidly positive. The entry timing is a major part of the edge, since the real entries beat 99% of random entry runs, meaning the specific moment you get in matters a lot. The edge also shows up consistently across all four walk-forward periods, so it is not a fluke from one lucky stretch.
Every verdict on this page comes from the same process. How we test.
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