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Trend · NFLX · 1D

Does EMA 20/50 trend rider actually work on NFLX? We tested it

We ran EMA 20/50 trend rider on NFLX through walk-forward testing and a 100-run random-entry gauntlet. 3 of 4 unseen periods positive. Beat 97 of 100 random-entry runs.

WALK-FORWARD VERIFIED EDGESTACKER ENGINE
Return +117.5%
Win rate 39.1%
Max drawdown −39.5%
Trades 23
Sharpe 0.61
Equity curve

Equity curve over Aug 2016 to Jul 2026. Hover any point for its value. Turn on buy and hold to compare.

PeriodWindowReturnSharpeTrades
1 Aug 2018 to Jul 2020 +28.1% 0.82 5
2 Jul 2020 to Jul 2022 −22.1% −1.26 5
3 Jul 2022 to Jul 2024 +50.9% 1.21 5
4 Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 +1.0% 0.13 5
3 of 4 periods positive. Mean Sharpe 0.22. Worst period −22.1%.
Market matrix
Edge held on 7 of 28

The same rules, tested on 28 tickers. Edge held on 7. We ship it on those.

NFLX SHIPPED
97/100 EDGE
META
95/100 EDGE
AMD
94/100 EDGE
MSTR
89/100 EDGE
QQQ
86/100 EDGE
NVDA
80/100 EDGE
AAPL
79/100 EDGE
Show every ticker we tested
RIOT
94/100 NONE
COIN
93/100 NONE
XOM
80/100 NONE
UBER
68/100 NONE
MSFT
66/100 NONE
SPY
58/100 NONE
IWM
53/100 NONE
PLTR
52/100 NONE
GLD
45/100 NONE
AVGO
44/100 NONE
DIA
39/100 NONE
GOOGL
30/100 NONE
MU
30/100 NONE
JPM
30/100 NONE
AMZN
29/100 NONE
TSLA
26/100 NONE
BA
19/100 NONE
SOFI
14/100 NONE
SMCI
5/100 NONE
MARA
5/100 NONE
HOOD
too new TOO NEW
The rules
Entrywhen EMA of close over 20 bars crosses above EMA of close over 50 bars
Exitwhen a signal fires (close crosses below EMA of close over 50 bars), or stop-loss at -10%
Sizing**Position size:** risk 1% of account → position ≈ 10.0% of account (1% ÷ stop 10%).
Diagnosis

This strategy made money overall, turning a 117% total return, but the ride was very lumpy. The worst stretch was a brutal 39.5% drawdown that lasted nearly three years, from mid-2020 to early 2023, which is where the pain really concentrated. With only 23 trades and a 39% win rate, the result is not driven by just a few lucky trades, but the entry timing is clearly critical. The entry-timing edge shows that real entries beat 97% of random entry runs, meaning the entry signal itself is carrying the result, not the exits. The consistency figure shows the edge was steady, as the strategy was profitable in 3 out of 4 walk-forward periods, so the performance did not come from just one lucky stretch.

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Backtested results, not live trading returns. Fees and slippage included. Not investment advice.